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It seems like every week I get a letter from a reader asking questions along the
following line: "How can I make a lot of money so I can retire early and/or live
the lifestyle I want to live when I do retire?" Most of them are phrased far
more eloquently and with accompanying questions and comments, but the bottom
line is, "How can I get rich?"
I'm especially touched by the very sincere letters from young people who ask
this most basic of questions about accumulating wealth. They are not looking for
get-rich-quick schemes but for some guidance as to how to organize their lives.
I've never really been able to answer these letters with anything close to an
adequate response. In today's letter I'm going to draft a response that we can
use for all such future letters. I trust you will find it interesting as we wax
a little philosophical about how to build wealth.
Today's letter is in part a reflection of two very different items which reached
my desk this week. The first is a rather interesting survey on retirement from
Merrill Lynch. The second is a remarkable new book by my longtime friend Michael
Masterson simply entitled "Automatic Wealth." Both of them got me to thinking
about retirement (not mine, of course!), and how the coming wave of baby boomers
entering their retirement years will have a massive effect on all aspects of
American society.
The New Retirement Model
Merrill Lynch released a new survey a few weeks ago called the New Retirement
Survey, wherein they polled 3,448 baby boomers, both from the general population
and the more affluent segment about their views on retirement. I'm going to
spend a few pages summarizing the survey, and highlighting some of the more
interesting points. I should note that the survey was done for Merrill Lynch by
gerontologist Dr. Ken Dychtwald, who is the president of Age Wave with the help
of Harris Interactive. I must say that I thought it was a very thoughtful and
well put together survey.
The survey reveals that baby boomers plan an unexpected approach to retirement
in anticipation of increased life spans, labor demographics and (what I perceive
as a lack of) financial preparedness. Interestingly less than 1/5 of baby
boomers plan to stop working for pay. 40% expect to cycle between work and
leisure; another 16% plan to work part-time and an energetic 13% plan to start
their own business. 6% plan to continue to work full-time.
That is a long way from the model of our parents and grandparents, who more or
less expected to retire from work. Interestingly, of those who expected to
continue working, 56% of them said that they intended to pursue a different line
of work.
Not having enough money was only fourth on a list of fears about the future.
Number one on the list was being unable to afford health insurance, with over
half of those responding worried about health insurance. Right after that was a
major illness and going to a nursing home.
Money Can Buy Happiness
The survey broke the respondents into two groups. Those who were very or fairly
well prepared for retirement and those who are somewhat or not prepared. Those
who are more financially well-off were twice as likely to be looking forward to
retirement, 70% more likely to be optimistic about the future and three times as
likely to describe themselves as successful. Coincidentally, they expected to
live longer, and were happier.
Those with less money were twice as likely to be stressed out; 50% more likely
to worry about health care; much more worried about losing their sex drive and
three times more worried about whether or not they would have enough money.
Evidently, money can buy some relative amount of happiness, at least among the
broad population.
The United States is currently in a great debate about Social Security. We are
basically ignoring the far larger and more contentious issue of Medicare, and
this survey tells us why. When asked the question, "Do you believe that you and
every member of your generation are entitled to the full benefits of each of
these programs?" 89% of boomers believe that they are entitled to Medicare.
Social Security was only slightly less at 88% and senior discounts scored 85%.
78% believe that we are entitled to prescription drug coverage.
The Republicans have offered a plan whereby nothing changes for the baby boomer
generation, recognizing that trying to change the benefits for those over 55 is
a nonstarter politically. Given the serious anxiety about health care among the
boomer generation, when we do get around to having to deal with Medicare the
choices are going to be few and difficult. But there is some consensus about
what those choices would and would not be.
72% of respondents favored reducing entitlement levels of those who are
financially well-off. 63% opposed having everyone receive a little less in the
way of entitlements and 65% opposed raising the age of eligibility to reflect
higher life expectancies.
As an aside, I think this means we do relatively nothing about Medicare until
there is indeed a crisis, forcing a solution. Given the above and some of the
statistics below, I think it is highly likely that the "rich" are going to have
to cough up (pardon the pun) more of their income for health care for everyone
else.
Unrealistic Retirement Expectations
Those were pretty much the general conclusions. I've found some of the actual
survey questions and responses to be very interesting. 42% of baby boomers do
not know how much money they will need to be able to live comfortably in
retirement. 60% had less then $100,000 of total savings other than their home,
and 46% had less than 50,000. Of course 7% were not sure how much they had saved
and 12% decline to answer, so it would be a reasonable assumption to think that
70% had less than $100,000.
26% felt they would need between $25,000 and $50,000 annual income to be
comfortable in retirement, and another 27% would need as much as 75,000. (23%
were not sure what they would need -- so much for financial planning.).
Let's look at that last group. To generate $75,000 of income, with a reasonable
degree of safety and adding enough to principal to be able to take care of the
effects of inflation, you need a portfolio worth about $1.5 million, give or
take $100,000. Only 2% of the respondents said they had as much as one million.
Only 3% had more than $500,000 with another 5% having more than $250,000. Less
than 10% of the boomer generation had more than $250,000, yet 70% said they
would need more than $25,000 annual income to live comfortably.
Even subtracting for Social Security and other pensions, there are going to be a
lot of baby boomers who are going to be disappointed about their retirement if
they have to live off their savings. To our credit, we seem to recognize that.
Thus, less than 20% of us expect to be able to enter retirement without working
for pay again.
Nevertheless, we are an optimistic lot.
We as boomers like to think of ourselves as a generation that defies categories,
yet we sometimes fit into them so well. Dr. Ken Dychtwald broke the boomer
generation into five clear "profiles of boomers and their likely retirement
scenarios emerged. These profiles provided further insight as to what the "next
stage" looks like for these boomer groupings; the personal, societal, workforce
and economic implications of their perspective. The five distinct and different
boomer segments are: the "Empowered Trailblazers," the "Wealth-Builders," the
"Leisure Lifers," the "Anxious Idealists," and the "Stretched & Stressed."
The next few paragraphs are direct quotes and descriptions for these five groups
from the survey. It might be interesting to see into which groups you fit.
"For the Empowered Trailblazers (18% of boomers), retirement will be a well-
rounded, empowered and liberated period of their lives. Rather than spending
their retirement in passive rest and relaxation, they will be traveling,
exercising, taking educational classes, spending time with family and friends
and embarking in new directions. Open to new ideas, retirement will provide an
opportunity to widen, not narrow, their horizons. Generous with their resources,
they plan on contributing time and money to social causes and charities. 68% are
looking forward to next phase. More than half say 'self-confidence' and "open-
mindedness" completely describes them. 90% aspire to work, 67% plan to
volunteer, and 79% plan to travel.
"The Wealth Builders (31% of boomers) are fueled by their desire for material
success and security. For them, retirement will center around continued work and
the achievement (and enjoyment) of financial success and security. They are the
most likely of all groups to define themselves as workaholics and are less
likely to say they want to stop working for pay in the next phase. About half of
this group would say they are primarily driven by their own personal financial
gain, while the other half is working to achieve financial security and
stability for their immediate family. In fact, they are the most likely of all
boomers to describe themselves as family oriented, and in the next phase they
plan to reap the benefits of their hard work by spending more with their spouse
or partner, children, and grandchildren. 79% plan to work, but only 28% say a
sense of self-worth or identity is a very important reason to keep working -
it's the money that matters.
"Anxious Idealists (20% of Boomers) see their retirement years both as a time
for new directions and better work/life balance and as an opportunity to give
even more of their time, skills and money to worthwhile causes. They may not
have a lot of assets, but they are the most likely to say it's important to them
to leave a significant amount of money to their family and to charitable
organizations. However, because throughout their lives, they have not tended to
focus on practical matters, they realize that they haven't put away as much
money as they should, and their lack of money is a serious and growing source of
worry and fear. 85% believe that it costs too much to retire.
"When asked what they are looking forward to, the Leisure Lifers (13% of
Boomers) are the most likely to list simplifying their lives and having years of
full time relaxation and play among their top goals. Work is definitely not a
priority for them - and a large percentage never enjoyed their careers or jobs.
They are the most likely to look forward to stopping work for pay completely and
permanently, and the sooner the better. They are more likely to say they will
retire by their early 50s. In fact, half of them are retired already. With low
levels of income and low levels of savings, if they were to anticipate serious
financial difficulties in the next phase, they are the least likely to say they
would go back to work to try to make up for the shortfall. Instead, they are
counting on government entitlements and their savings to ensure a life of
leisure in the next phase. 78% are looking forward to having more time for rest
and relaxation, and 71% are looking forward to reducing stress. 94% feel that
they and every member of their generation are entitled to full benefits from
social security.
"The Stretched and Stressed (18% of Boomers) are the least likely to describe
themselves as successful, self-empowered or optimistic about the future. They
are on a bad path and they know it. During the next stage, they will continue to
work, not because they want to, but because they will have to. Of all boomers,
they have the highest unemployment levels, have earned the lowest levels of
income throughout their lives and have taken least advantage of available
guidance or pension opportunities. There isn't much they are looking forward to
- they are least likely to look forward to spending time with their spouse, most
likely to think financial issues and where to live will be major sources of
disagreement, and most likely to think they and their spouses will be very
unhappy in the next phase. Only 9% are looking forward to next phase, and they
expect lowest levels of happiness (5.8 out of 10). They expect to live the
shortest - only until age 77."
Automatic Wealth
Looking at the data, it's easy to come away with the idea that a substantial
portion of my generation is living in denial or has not planned or saved for
retirement. But it is also true that a significant portion has done very well
and will be able to retire in comfort. What's the difference? It's not
necessarily education or genetics or luck, although these don't hurt. It has
more to do with hard work, perseverance and a lifestyle that allows for
significant savings.
When someone writes to me asking how they can make a lot of money, what they're
really asking me, as a supposed expert in investing, is "What are the secret
investing techniques that the wealthy know that I don't?"
And now I have to burst a lot of bubbles. There are no secret investing
techniques that will make you wealthy. The not-so-secret answer is to save as
much as you can and compound it as safely as you can over time, and start when
you are young.
I spend a great deal of my time analyzing hedge funds and money managers. Some
of these funds and managers provide above-average risk-adjusted returns, but
there are very few who will make you rich simply by putting your money in their
fund. And those who do have such funds are probably closed to new investors. We
all know that putting $100,000 with Warren Buffett at the beginning of his
career would have made you fabulously wealthy. But who knew back then? How many
people had access to Warren Buffett or even knew who he was in the 1960's?
The reality is that 80% of mutual funds managed by professionals don't beat
their respective indexes. Very few managers have consistently provided 15-20%
annualized returns over a decade of time, which is a remarkable achievement.
Investing is about managing your assets in such a way as to have them grow and
compound. That implies you have assets to begin with. This means that saving is
more important than investing in the process of accumulating wealth.
I know, I know, there are many examples of people who have in fact gotten rich
investing. They found Warren Buffett at the beginning of his career or invested
a significant portion of their assets in Microsoft in 1982. If you start with
10,000 investors, it is quite likely that you'll find 100 who have become
wealthy simply from the process of investing. As Nassim Taleb noted in his
brilliant book "Fooled by Randomness," that is no more than you would expect
simply from random events.
People do indeed become rich by buying a two dollar lottery ticket. It happens
every month. It just doesn't happen to very many people.
People who get rich by random investing often resent it when I suggest that they
were lucky. I mean this as no disrespect. As my less-than-sainted Dad often
said, "I would rather be lucky than good." But for everyone who chose Microsoft,
there were a lot of who also chose Wang. Both investors did their homework, and
initially, it looked like they were both going to be successful. Things just
worked out differently.
And I would point out that Buffett and Microsoft were risky bets in the
beginning. I mean, have you seen a picture of the 7 scruffy kids who started
Microsoft? This is a slam dunk?
Those who invested in Wang simply saw it is bad luck. Those who invested in
Microsoft believed in their own skill. And I would admit there was some skill.
But history shows us that it is not a very reproducible skill. If it truly was a
skill then such a person would be choosing one Microsoft after another. And that
happens very rarely.
There are some 70,000 investors who trade a hypothetical $1 million at the web
site www.marketocracy.com run by California investor Ken Kam. Only 2% have
records of beating the S&P both long-term and monthly. Kam picks the top 100
managers to actually run a fund. However, last year, the fund lost 4% while the
S&P 500 gained 11%. It's a tough world out there.
Listen to how Rich Karlgaard of Forbes describes these top 100 investors: "Few
of Kam's top 100 attended Harvard Business School. That's the point. Wall Street
investment houses, says Kam, recruit the wrong people. The top-drawer firms look
for high achieving, well spoken generalists from the best business schools. But
good investors, Kam says, tend to be savants with a passion. They're nerds.
They're freaks. They're too young or too old. They eat junk food and stare at
the monitor and perhaps forget to bathe. They live and breathe stocks. They tend
to be sector specialists who know the underlying science, product cycles, supply
chains and b habits in their sectors."
In the very important book, "The Millionaire Next Door," one of the things that
is quite common among millionaires is that they own their own business. And I
would suggest to you that most of the people that you and I know who have gotten
rich because of their investing have done so because investing is their
business. They are investment professionals in one form or another. They may not
have a "license," but they are professional none-the-less. They have devoted
their lives to it. I contend they would have been just as successful in another
business. It was their hard work, dedication and devotion to their craft that
made them successful. Investing was simply a tool.
For 98% of the people who read this letter, investing in a passive manner is not
the primary way to get rich. You will have to do something in addition to
investing if you want to be able to retire wealthy.
And that brings us to the book that I mentioned at the beginning of this letter
by Michael Masterson called "Automatic Wealth - the Six Steps to Financial
Independence."
It would be simple to say that from now on when I get a question about how one
can become wealthy I will refer them to "Automatic Wealth." But the book is more
about than some formula for getting wealthy. It is to some degree a book about
the philosophy of wealth and money, as well as the role it plays in our life.
The Eight Habits of Wealthy People
Michael recognizes that money is not the most important thing in life. As he
notes, he knows a lot of rich people who are miserable. However as the survey we
just reviewed pointed out, not having money is even more stressful. Money is
simply a tool. And some people seem to have the knack for accumulating it.
Masterson gives us eight habits of wealthy people.
A. Wealthy people work hard.
B. Wealthy people are good at what they do.
C. Wealthy people have multiple streams of income.
D. Wealthy people live in (relatively) inexpensive homes.
E. Wealthy people are moderate in spending.
F. Wealthy people are extraordinary at saving.
G. Wealthy people pay themselves first.
H. Wealthy people count their money.
Michael recognizes that there are multiple ways to achieve wealth. It is
possible to achieve wealth by working for the other guy and getting paid a
handsome salary and save a good part of that salary. And he shows you how to
increase your salary and your personal value to your company. But statistics
show us that it is more likely you will achieve wealth by owning your own
business, investing in small businesses and/or real estate.
I've known Michael for over 20 years. He is one of the smartest businessmen that
I know, and is a true marketing genius. (I don't say that lightly.) Watching him
analyze a business or marketing strategy can be a very humbling experience.
During the time I've known him, he has started dozens of small businesses and
ventures. Most of them have been successful and some of them have been wildly
successful. Michael has a knack for understanding what it takes to make a small
(or large) business work. This book gives us the accumulated wisdom that he has
learned in the past almost 40 years.
But this book is not to just about starting small businesses. I happen to be a
serial entrepreneur, but there are many people who simply don't want to run
their own business. I can respect that, but it doesn't mean that they are locked
into a life of less wealth. Michael gives us many other ways to go about
accumulating wealth.
I am a relatively successful businessman. While reading this book, I learned a
great deal about the basics of business and organizing my life. I took away a
lot of notes and added to my "things-to-do" list. The four hours I spent reading
this book will repay themselves many times over. Moreover, the book is written
in such a style that it has me positively excited about making changes that I
know will be difficult.
So if you're starting out and looking to accumulate wealth or, if you're already
down the road and would like to fine tune or add to your knowledge, I suggest
you go to www.Amazon.com and pick up "Automatic Wealth." I really think you'll
find the $16.47 (and four hours worth of reading time) price tag to be a
bargain.
Masterson and his staff also write a daily newsletter called "Early to Rise."
The e-letter is full of ideas and articles about not only business but how to
make your life in general better. I find it a valuable read, and always try to
at least scan it for the articles that I know I need to think about. I've
arranged for my readers to get a free trial by going to
http://earlytorise.com/freetrial.htm.
Fishing, Business and Real Cheerleaders
We are going to take my youngest son fishing tomorrow, although it may scar him
for fishing. I am the world's unluckiest fisherman. I can sit in the middle of
20 people catching fish, use the same lures or bait, throw my line in the same
place and come up empty. It is uncanny. I have been known to jinx professional
guides. Some of my friends have banned me from their camps. Of course, Trey will
probably only remember the time his Dad took him fishing and not that all they
did was drown worms. At least, that is what I hope.
Thankfully, I do not make my living fishing. What I do is analyze hedge funds
and investment managers. And since we are talking about small business and the
need to market, let me in the way of a commercial mention that I write a free e-
letter for high net worth investors.
I am instituting some new policies and procedures for my free Accredited
Investor E- Letter, which we will announce soon. It is a letter on hedge funds
and private offerings. In the meantime, if you are an accredited investor
($1,000,000 net worth or more) and would like to get my thoughts, you can go to
www.accreditedinvestor.ws and register. Basically, I work with Altegris
Investments to be able to offer investors access to a select group of hedge
funds, private offerings and commodity funds. The website explains how we work,
as well as outlines the risks involved. Feel free to write if you have more
questions.
I wish I could make the offer more universal, but the rules do not allow me to
do so. I hope that at some point in the future Congress will decide there should
not be two classes of investors, but until that time the rules are quite clear.
(In this regard, I am the owner and a registered representative of Millennium
Wave Securities, LLC, an NASD member firm. See more disclosures on the web site
and at the end of this letter.)
I am often disdainful of stock market cheerleaders. Usually, when I get a little
over the edge, someone writes and points out that I should not disparage REAL
cheerleaders. They are right, of course. I have four daughters, all of whom were
involved in competitive cheerleading. It is a lot of work and effort. One of my
daughters (Amanda) was an All-American. Tomorrow morning she will be in Dallas
cheering for ORU at the women's NCAA tournament as ORU takes on the University
of Texas in what on paper a mismatch. But in March, upsets sometimes happen.
That's why they play the game.
It's time to hit the send button, as it is late and I have to get up early.
Enjoy your week.
Note: John Mauldin is president of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC, (MWA) a
registered investment advisor. All material presented herein is believed to be
reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may
change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors before
making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change
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Your not planning on retiring analyst,
 John Mauldin
John@FrontlineThoughts.com
Copyright 2010 John Mauldin. All Rights Reserved
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John Mauldin is the President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA) which is an investment advisory firm registered with multiple states. John Mauldin is a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, (MWS) an NASD registered broker-dealer. MWS is also a Commodity Pool Operator (CPO) and a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) registered with the CFTC, as well as an Introducing Broker (IB). Millennium Wave Investments is a dba of MWA LLC and MWS LLC. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors before making any investment decisions.
Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. John Mauldin and/or the staffs at Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.
Note: The generic Accredited Investor E-letters are not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of John Mauldin and Millennium Wave Investments. It is intended solely for accredited investors who have registered with Millennium Wave Investments and Altegris Investments at www.accreditedinvestor.ws or directly related websites and have been so registered for no less than 30 days. The Accredited Investor E-Letter is provided on a confidential basis, and subscribers to the Accredited Investor E-Letter are not to send this letter to anyone other than their professional investment counselors. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. John Mauldin is the President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA), which is an investment advisory firm registered with multiple states. John Mauldin is a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, (MWS), an FINRA
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